First of all, we must agree that there is a cycle in every economy. We can say that it is consists of the bull phase where the price of an asset is going upward and the bearish period where the price is going downward.
That is a rule. What is going up must go down and vise versa.
The same applies to cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin.
In the crypto market, this cycle has a period of 4 years. The event that triggers the transition from the bearish to the bullish phase is the Bitcoin halving event.
Bitcoin halving event occurs after 210,000 blocks are generated, and that takes approximately 4 years.
In 2016, on July 9, the halving event occurs and the price of bitcoin was $646. Exactly one year later the price was $2555. That is 3.8 times the price from the halving.
Then a correction happens, and on December 17, a new ATH occurs. We saw the peak of the cycle with the BTC price at $19,266.
That is a total of 29 times the price from the halving event.
In 2020 on May 11, the last halving event occurs, with BTC price having a value of $8476. After one year the price went to approx. $48000. That is a multiplier of 5.6.
Let’s look at some other interesting facts. In the beginning, Bitcoin was an unknown asset. Few people knew it, and fewer were involved.
I was asking people if they knew it. The result was that two out of ten people knew it, but only one in a hundred has invested.
Now everyone knows BTC, and a lot of people have invested.
Before the last halving event, the CEO from Banks was negative and told that BTC was a scam.
Now they are saying the opposite, and trying to get a license to give their customers the ability to trade it.
Again we see that it goes more and more accessible and mainstream.
The bearish period starts when we hit an ATH, and after that, we have a rapid decline in the price of more than 40%.
We have seen it in 2017–18 in a really hard crash.
We have seen it and in this bull run on May 23, where the price was for a moment 50% down from the ATH.
On the other hand, the bull runs until now have a period of 460–518 days depending on how we start to measure, but now we have only 370 days from the beginning of this bull run.
Additionally, we are far away from a multiplier of x29 on the price of BTC in this bull run.
It looks like the market is split in the middle. One part believes that we are in a bearish phase and that this cycle is over because of the big correction. The other half believes that we haven’t seen the big gains in this bull run and that we are in a healthy correction.
Do you want my opinion?
I don’t know. I see the picture of the market, and I interpreted it one or the other way, depending on the angle I see it. I am split in the middle.